Wishful Thinking
Wishful thinking is "Believing that because it would be nice if something were truce, then it must actually be true." (Warburton page 145) It would be nice if we could talk to the dead, or if crop circles were signs from extraterrestrials, or any of hundreds of other things, but this does not make any of them true. (In fact, there is good evidence that many of these pseudo-scientific beliefs are wrong.) Wishful thinking is often bolstered by confirmation bias, remembering those events that support one's view while ignoring those that do not.
Wishful thinking doesn't just lead to faulty conclusions; it can also lead to damaging behavior. Some people have spent large amounts of money on psychics; others have put their faith in "miracle cures" rather than proven cures. Still others spend large sums on the lottery, even though the chances of winning are minute. People have stayed in bad relationships, believing that they can change their partners for the better. Others engage in risky behavior like smoking or unprotected sex, believing that nothing bad can happen to them.
Wishful thinking can also be seen in politics and popular movements. Some people seem to think that if only their candidate was elected, or a piece of legislation is passed or defeated, then utopia will be here. A recent example is the extravagant claims made for allowing oil drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge. Others apparently think that if only everyone became a Democrat or a Green or a Libertarian or an objectivist then everything would be fine. Others appear to think that they can find some simple solutions to complex problems like poverty, homelessness or the state of the environment. It is not that simple, of course. These problems will require a multitude of solutions, and hard work, and for the near future at least will probably be controlled rather than ended.
References
Warburton, N., Thinking from A to Z, second edition, Routledge, 2000.
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Written by Jim Norton
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