Alternative explanations
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
One of the biggest errors in determining the cause of events is failure to consider alternative explanations. Typically, people simply put forth their favorite theories to explain events. For some, a mysterious light in the sky is automatically a UFO. That it might be simply a reflection is not even considered. Likewise, a crop circle is proof of visits by extraterrestrials, and not merely a prank. Others see events in the news as opportunities to promote favorite theories, or to blame groups they don't like.
Jumping to conclusions
There have been a number of news stories where the authors have failed to consider alternative explanations. Some time ago there was an article noting that most of the people who jumped off the Golden Gate Bridge jumped off what the author called the "city" side, with very few using the "ocean" side. From this the writer concluded that most of the jumpers were looking downhearted back at the city, thinking of their unfulfilled dreams. But there are two problems with this analysis. The first is that the "city" side actually faces San Francisco Bay, not the city of San Francisco. The second problem is that the "city" side of the bridge is also the pedestrian side. The "ocean" side is reserved for bicyclists. A more plausible explanation is that most of the people who were contemplating jumping would walk out on the bridge, rather than ride a bicycle.
A more recent author noted that there was a sudden in the number of people were waiting till the last minute to send in their tax returns. The author claimed that his was because of an increase in procrastination. He went on to claim that this was proof of changes in society. But a more likely explanation is changes in the tax laws. These changes resulted in less withholding for most people. This meant that fewer people would be getting refunds, and more would have to send in a check with their return. It makes sense, economically, to wait till the last minute to pay bills. While more people may in fact be procrastinating, an alternate explanation is that more people were calculating there taxes early but waiting till the last minute to send in their checks.
Over the years, the scores for the SAT (scholastic aptitude test) have generally fallen. This is usually blamed on a decrease in the quality of education. The problem with this analysis is that because not all students take the test, it is a biased sample. At one time most of the students who took the test did so because it was a requirement for college admission (and not every college required it). Over time, the percentage of students taking the test has increased. An alternate explanation for the lower test scores is that it is no longer just the best students who are taking it.
The blame game
A recurring theme among the antienvironmental "brownlash" writers is that environmentalists are responsible for a number of woes. For example, a number of authors have claimed that concern about the environmental effects of DDT has led to the halting of malaria control programs and subsequent epidemics (see the DDT ban myth). None of the authors seems to have considered that there could be other reasons for halting the spraying, such as simple running out of money. According to the opponents of environmental education, any activism by students is a direct result of environmental education. For example, on page 4 of their book Facts, not Fear Michael Sanera and Jane Shaw write about Catherine Mitchell:
"Our Earth is getting hotter every minute and the only way we can stop it is to stop burning Styrofoam," wrote Catherine Mitchell, a student at Percy Priest Elementary School in Nashville, Tennessee. "I'm also too young to die, might I add, so stop burning the Earth!
Catherine is worried about dying because her elementary school textbooks taught her that global warming and a thinning ozone layer threatens her life. Never mind that the greenhouse effect and the so-called "hole" in the ozone layer have little to do with each other, or that burning Styrofoam has little to with either one. Catherine's environmental education may be scientifically weak but it's emotionally potent.
How do the authors know that Catherine got her misinformation from her environmental education? She could have simply misunderstood what she was taught, as children often do. Or she could have gotten her information from some other source. And how can Sanera and Shaw conclude that Catherine's letter writing was a result of her education? There was a great deal of furor at about the time her letter was published (1991) about McDonald's Styrofoam clamshell burger holders. One proposed solution for dealing with the clamshells was to build incinerators behind each restaurant. (Note: her science is not as weak as Sanera and Shaw would have their readers believe. Global warming is making ozone depletion worse (much of the research on this was published after the book was written) and Styrofoam once used chemicals linked to both ozone depletion and global warming (Ruben page 2))
Sanera and Shaw go on to write about Melissa Poe, who wrote then President George Bush with her concerns about the environment. The authors again blame a child's activism on her environmental education, apparently without even considering that there could be another cause. But here we don't have to guess about where Melissa got her ideas, her actual inspiration was the television show Highway to Heaven. (See Highway to myths) It appears that Sanera and Shaw are more interested in playing the blame game than in determing the facts.
Evaluating alternatives
Much has been written about evaluating alternative explanations (Theodore Schick and Lewis Vaughn's How to Think about Weird Things is especially good) so I will just offer a few words of advice. First, be sure that you consider alternatives before putting forth any theory. You may discover a better explanation, or that it is impossible to determine the exact cause. Even if you stick with your original claim you will be able to defend it better. Also remember Occam's Razor: the simplest explanation is probably the best one. Finally, remember that the burden of proof is on the person making a claim, especially if it is an extraordinary claim. You may not be able to prove that a crop circle was not made by extraterrestrials, but by showing that it could have been made by local college students you have shown that it is extremely unlikely that it was made by space aliens.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
References
Rubin, Charles T., The Green Crusade, Rowman & Littlefield, 1994-1998.
Sanera, Michael and Jane S. Shaw, Facts not Fear: A Parent's Guide to Teaching Children About the Environment, Regnery Publishing, Inc., 1996. Now in a second edition.
Schick, Theodore , Jr. and Lewis Vaughn, How to Think about Weird Things: Critical Thinking for a New Age, Mayfield Publishing Company, 1995-1999
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
Written by Jim Norton
Visit my anti-environmental myths home page.
Visit my practical skepticism page
The text on these pages may be freely copied, distributed and posted as long as my name, this statement and the URL (http://info-pollution.com/explanations.htm) are included.